***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 6.1 10.7 84.4 58.8 43.6 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 5.3 10.7 82.5 56.7 44.0 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.7 11.0 85.4 58.4 43.5 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.4 12.9 85.1 59.5 40.0 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.9 14.1 101.2 64.7 48.3 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.0 6.9 17.3 115.7 68.7 49.2 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.9 10.6 82.6 57.1 44.8 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 7.7 10.4 16.1 113.7 68.4 52.4 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.4 13.5 98.7 63.4 48.0 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.9 14.8 104.0 65.1 50.4 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.4 14.0 111.7 68.4 51.7 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.9 14.9 121.1 70.8 53.1 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.5 8.4 15.7 116.5 69.3 51.4 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.5 8.8 13.3 86.4 57.0 44.3 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.8 6.4 16.7 102.5 66.1 45.9 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.1 7.5 14.7 113.7 68.8 50.6 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.2 11.1 84.7 57.8 43.9 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.5 15.3 95.3 61.3 48.1 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.8 10.8 83.5 56.7 43.5 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.4 20.2 97.6 62.5 48.3 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.6 12.0 90.9 60.9 45.6 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.2 11.0 82.2 56.6 43.1 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.5 11.0 84.6 56.7 43.2 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.5 13.1 88.7 58.5 45.3 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.0 12.6 88.7 60.6 45.0 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.3 8.6 15.7 116.9 69.6 51.7 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.2 11.6 85.0 58.9 44.2 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.9 15.1 98.8 64.3 44.2 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 12.5 16.4 92.1 59.9 47.3 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.1 10.6 82.5 57.0 43.9 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------