***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.7 10.5 83.6 59.9 43.1 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.9 9.3 77.8 57.0 44.9 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.2 10.3 10.1 80.8 57.1 41.7 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.1 9.9 71.4 55.4 41.1 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.1 8.8 10.0 74.7 55.5 42.2 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.9 9.5 74.1 54.9 44.9 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.2 9.3 76.7 56.9 45.2 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 14.8 11.0 78.3 56.6 42.7 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 7.3 9.8 71.8 53.0 40.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.6 10.7 74.1 53.9 41.2 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.6 9.1 72.3 54.9 41.0 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.8 9.4 80.0 57.9 42.8 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.3 9.7 81.5 58.0 45.2 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.7 13.6 10.8 72.5 52.7 40.9 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.7 11.4 78.0 58.5 44.2 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.5 9.2 76.3 56.4 43.2 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.1 8.6 74.4 55.6 44.9 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 11.7 12.7 80.8 56.0 43.3 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.6 9.2 76.6 56.0 43.1 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.9 17.5 91.7 60.9 45.7 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.2 9.9 77.7 56.1 40.8 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.8 8.6 72.1 54.4 43.2 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.6 10.5 9.1 74.0 54.0 40.8 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.8 11.1 77.2 54.4 41.4 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.8 12.2 88.3 61.7 46.2 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.2 9.9 86.5 60.6 46.9 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.2 11.9 88.0 61.3 45.3 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.6 9.9 71.1 55.3 41.8 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 18.1 14.6 86.5 58.5 44.7 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.2 9.8 79.8 57.8 44.5 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------