***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 41.2 51.6 56.8 117.2 67.9 61.7 24.9 36.3 49.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 49.9 51.0 58.3 121.7 70.4 64.2 19.6 31.3 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 57.2 57.3 59.9 121.6 70.1 64.0 25.5 37.8 52.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 50.0 57.8 62.8 112.0 65.3 59.6 29.6 42.9 58.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 54.0 57.7 70.7 129.6 73.3 66.9 27.9 38.4 50.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 36.3 42.6 62.2 110.6 64.6 58.0 20.3 30.9 44.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 42.8 44.0 58.2 120.9 69.8 63.6 18.5 28.5 40.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 79.0 79.9 70.5 122.7 70.5 63.5 37.1 53.8 73.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 49.9 50.3 64.4 118.8 68.7 62.1 24.8 35.4 47.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 60.6 61.4 70.1 121.3 70.1 63.3 31.6 43.4 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 52.6 52.5 62.3 124.0 70.9 64.1 24.6 35.3 47.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 52.6 52.2 60.2 122.5 70.2 63.0 22.5 34.1 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 57.0 56.3 63.8 123.2 70.7 64.1 23.5 35.9 50.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 82.3 79.0 68.7 114.6 66.9 61.4 40.4 57.7 77.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 49.8 52.9 76.7 128.2 72.5 66.0 19.0 30.6 45.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 50.2 48.6 60.8 120.3 69.3 62.7 20.0 31.3 45.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 33.7 47.1 57.2 121.2 70.0 63.1 17.6 28.7 42.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 62.7 62.2 75.7 118.9 69.2 62.6 36.2 47.3 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 59.6 60.8 57.8 120.7 69.9 63.8 24.4 38.3 55.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 66.9 68.4 98.2 121.6 70.3 62.7 34.4 47.8 63.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 52.1 53.1 61.3 121.0 69.6 63.1 26.8 37.3 49.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 39.0 49.9 56.8 116.0 67.5 61.1 22.0 33.9 48.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 63.5 63.2 59.4 120.0 69.8 63.8 26.7 40.8 58.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 68.5 67.0 68.4 118.4 69.0 62.9 33.6 47.5 63.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 54.8 57.0 67.5 123.7 70.9 64.9 23.3 35.7 51.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 52.2 50.6 61.4 117.3 68.0 61.5 24.6 35.6 48.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 38.9 49.5 62.6 119.3 68.9 62.9 24.0 34.4 46.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 45.7 43.9 66.2 116.4 67.4 61.3 19.2 29.5 42.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 85.6 84.1 81.2 117.8 68.6 61.9 47.4 63.3 80.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 50.7 52.0 59.5 123.5 71.1 65.0 20.6 32.0 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------