***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 8.5 9.0 10.6 1.9 75.7 71.4 5.3 6.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 8.0 8.2 9.6 1.2 68.0 64.9 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 10.2 10.3 10.2 1.2 68.5 65.1 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 5.7 6.2 8.2 1.8 76.8 73.4 2.9 4.1 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 7.6 8.1 9.2 1.8 75.9 72.6 4.6 5.9 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 6.8 7.1 6.8 1.8 76.0 74.1 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 7.9 8.2 9.9 1.5 72.0 68.3 5.4 6.6 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 2.8 2.8 6.4 1.0 66.8 65.0 -0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 8.3 8.3 8.6 1.2 69.6 66.8 5.7 6.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 7.8 7.8 7.0 1.0 67.1 64.9 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.6 8.3 1.2 70.3 67.8 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.8 7.6 1.4 72.2 70.2 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.4 7.5 1.5 73.6 71.6 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.7 7.6 0.6 60.0 58.3 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 8.2 8.8 9.9 1.9 82.0 77.9 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 8.6 8.9 8.1 1.7 75.7 73.2 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 6.9 7.6 9.0 1.0 65.1 62.5 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 5.9 6.5 6.3 0.9 64.1 62.4 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.1 7.7 9.4 0.9 64.3 61.7 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 3.3 3.2 5.3 1.0 65.6 64.1 0.7 2.0 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.4 9.8 1.5 73.3 69.3 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 6.2 6.4 8.9 0.5 58.4 56.6 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.9 7.2 9.2 0.5 58.9 57.2 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.0 7.9 0.8 63.9 61.7 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 8.8 9.6 10.5 2.2 79.6 75.5 5.6 7.0 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 7.4 7.6 7.6 1.9 76.9 75.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 9.2 10.4 10.7 2.3 80.4 75.8 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 6.5 6.9 8.5 1.8 77.7 74.6 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.8 5.6 0.7 61.0 59.9 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 8.3 8.6 10.0 1.3 69.1 65.7 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------