***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.2 8.6 1.4 68.3 64.4 2.6 4.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.0 5.8 8.0 1.3 67.3 64.2 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.1 8.4 1.3 67.4 64.0 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.8 5.9 1.5 70.3 65.7 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 5.0 5.0 6.2 1.4 68.6 64.4 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 4.2 4.2 4.3 1.2 67.3 64.7 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.9 5.7 8.2 1.4 68.5 65.0 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 1.3 1.2 4.6 1.3 67.9 64.7 -1.9 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 5.9 5.9 6.5 1.3 68.2 64.3 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.5 5.2 1.3 67.9 64.4 2.7 4.1 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.1 5.6 1.3 68.1 64.4 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 4.6 4.6 5.0 1.3 67.9 64.6 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.2 66.3 64.1 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 6.6 6.2 6.4 1.2 66.2 63.3 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.9 6.7 1.5 71.3 66.9 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 6.0 5.9 5.1 1.2 67.2 64.1 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 5.9 5.9 7.9 1.4 67.7 64.7 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.0 4.5 1.2 65.8 63.0 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.1 5.8 8.0 1.2 66.7 63.7 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 1.5 1.2 3.3 1.2 65.0 62.9 -1.3 0.0 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.7 7.7 1.3 67.7 63.9 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.0 7.7 1.3 67.0 64.0 1.9 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 5.9 5.6 7.9 1.2 66.3 63.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.2 6.0 1.2 66.7 63.6 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.1 7.4 1.5 69.2 65.0 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 5.0 4.7 4.3 1.0 64.6 62.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.7 8.2 1.5 69.1 65.0 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 4.3 4.4 5.9 1.4 70.3 65.9 1.5 2.8 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.1 4.1 1.2 65.0 62.5 1.0 2.7 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.2 8.2 1.4 67.9 64.5 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------