***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.5 8.8 1.3 74.7 71.2 4.4 5.2 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.8 6.0 8.1 1.1 71.4 68.3 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.1 8.5 1.0 71.0 68.0 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 3.3 3.7 6.2 1.3 77.2 73.3 1.5 2.3 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 5.3 5.5 6.8 1.2 75.3 71.6 3.7 4.4 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 4.6 4.8 4.7 1.1 75.2 71.9 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 5.8 6.0 8.3 1.2 73.4 70.2 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 1.1 1.2 4.7 0.9 69.9 66.9 -0.7 0.2 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.3 6.8 1.0 72.2 68.8 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 5.7 5.9 5.3 0.9 70.3 67.1 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.5 6.1 1.0 71.9 68.6 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.7 5.4 1.0 72.2 69.0 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 4.9 5.0 5.2 1.0 72.1 68.8 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.3 6.4 0.8 67.0 64.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 5.9 6.2 7.4 1.3 78.7 74.6 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.5 5.7 1.1 74.1 70.6 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.8 6.0 7.9 1.1 71.5 68.4 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.4 4.6 0.8 67.2 64.3 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 5.8 5.9 8.1 0.9 69.3 66.5 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 1.0 1.6 3.5 0.8 67.1 64.4 0.0 0.8 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 5.8 6.0 8.0 1.1 73.5 70.1 4.2 5.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 5.1 5.2 7.8 0.9 68.2 65.4 3.8 4.4 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 5.7 5.6 7.9 0.8 66.5 64.2 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 5.3 5.4 6.2 0.8 68.1 65.3 4.1 4.7 5.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 6.4 6.7 8.0 1.4 77.4 73.6 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.4 5.0 1.0 72.7 69.6 3.8 4.5 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.9 8.5 1.5 77.5 73.6 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 4.4 4.7 6.3 1.2 77.0 73.0 2.9 3.6 4.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.0 4.1 0.7 64.8 62.3 2.5 3.3 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 6.1 6.3 8.4 1.1 71.5 68.5 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------