***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 18.7 18.1 17.3 0.0 50.2 49.9 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 18.9 17.5 16.5 -0.9 41.1 41.8 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 19.0 17.9 17.1 -0.5 44.4 44.8 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 13.0 12.9 15.4 1.5 67.1 65.5 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 18.8 18.9 16.5 0.5 55.8 55.3 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 19.4 19.3 16.0 1.5 65.0 64.2 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 18.4 17.3 16.6 -0.6 43.7 44.1 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 9.5 8.8 14.6 -0.3 47.4 47.6 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 18.9 18.5 17.0 0.1 51.1 50.9 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 18.5 18.0 15.5 0.0 49.8 49.8 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 18.8 18.7 17.1 0.4 54.7 54.3 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 18.2 17.9 15.8 0.1 50.9 50.8 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 18.9 19.0 17.1 0.5 55.2 55.0 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.6 17.5 15.6 -1.3 36.5 37.7 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 19.0 19.0 18.0 1.7 69.2 67.6 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 19.4 19.8 17.0 0.8 58.8 58.2 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 18.4 16.8 15.8 -1.0 39.7 40.5 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 17.9 16.7 14.3 -0.9 41.5 42.2 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 18.8 17.2 16.6 -1.0 39.5 40.3 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.3 13.1 12.5 -1.4 36.2 37.2 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.3 17.5 0.1 50.8 50.5 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 16.5 17.2 15.8 -1.3 36.6 37.6 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 19.1 17.3 16.5 -1.2 37.5 38.6 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.3 17.7 16.0 -0.8 41.3 42.1 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.3 16.7 0.5 56.0 55.1 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 18.4 18.3 15.4 0.2 51.9 51.9 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 18.7 18.4 17.0 0.2 51.9 51.4 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 19.6 19.7 16.7 1.8 69.5 67.8 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.4 12.3 13.5 -1.4 36.6 37.8 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 18.6 17.4 16.8 -0.7 42.8 43.3 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------