***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 16.9 16.9 15.9 1.6 67.1 63.3 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.0 15.6 1.2 62.8 60.0 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.1 17.2 16.2 1.5 65.7 62.3 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 11.4 12.0 13.9 2.1 72.2 68.1 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 17.3 17.5 14.8 1.8 68.3 64.9 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 16.7 17.3 14.4 2.3 72.0 67.9 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.7 15.6 1.2 63.7 60.6 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 9.0 9.0 14.3 1.8 67.7 64.5 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 17.6 17.7 15.4 1.8 68.2 64.6 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 17.2 17.3 14.9 1.9 68.3 64.7 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 17.6 17.5 14.9 1.6 66.4 63.4 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 17.1 17.0 14.7 1.6 66.0 63.2 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 17.5 17.4 14.4 1.6 66.6 63.8 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.5 17.6 15.5 1.5 64.7 61.5 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.6 14.4 2.1 72.9 68.9 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 18.2 18.2 14.7 1.7 67.5 64.4 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.5 15.1 15.3 1.1 62.9 60.0 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 15.0 16.4 14.9 1.9 67.4 63.9 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.3 15.9 1.2 62.7 60.0 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.2 12.9 1.8 67.6 64.7 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 17.3 17.4 15.9 1.8 68.5 64.7 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.3 16.1 15.3 1.2 62.7 60.0 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.5 16.2 1.3 63.1 60.3 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.8 15.6 1.7 66.3 62.8 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 16.3 16.6 14.6 1.8 70.0 65.7 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 16.8 16.9 14.2 1.7 68.0 65.2 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 16.9 17.0 15.4 1.7 68.1 64.0 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 16.8 17.4 14.3 2.2 72.5 68.5 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.0 13.4 14.2 1.8 66.5 63.4 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.3 16.0 15.7 1.2 63.5 60.6 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------