***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 15.8 16.4 16.0 0.9 64.4 62.7 14.4 15.5 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.8 15.7 0.5 57.6 57.0 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.6 16.2 0.7 61.1 59.8 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 10.5 10.8 13.9 1.6 74.8 72.0 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 16.9 17.0 15.0 1.2 68.0 65.8 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 16.6 17.0 14.3 1.7 74.9 71.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.7 15.7 0.6 59.6 58.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.4 14.0 1.0 64.6 62.9 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 16.4 17.2 15.6 1.1 66.5 64.4 15.1 16.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.8 14.7 1.1 66.7 64.5 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 16.4 17.1 15.3 1.1 66.1 64.0 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.6 14.6 0.9 64.0 62.5 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 16.5 17.2 14.8 1.1 65.9 64.1 15.1 16.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.9 15.4 0.7 59.8 58.8 15.1 16.2 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 15.9 16.1 15.1 1.6 74.4 72.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 17.0 17.9 15.0 1.2 68.3 66.1 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.3 15.3 0.5 57.8 57.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.8 14.3 1.0 63.6 62.0 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.9 15.9 0.5 56.9 56.3 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.4 12.5 0.7 60.6 59.8 11.7 12.7 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.9 16.1 1.1 66.4 64.3 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.8 15.9 15.4 0.4 56.7 56.2 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.1 16.1 0.5 56.7 56.2 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 16.6 17.1 15.5 0.9 62.4 60.9 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 16.1 16.2 15.0 1.2 68.7 66.5 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 16.9 16.8 14.1 1.0 65.3 63.7 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.6 15.6 1.0 66.0 64.0 14.6 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 16.5 16.8 14.6 1.7 75.6 72.8 14.3 15.2 16.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.5 13.7 0.7 60.7 59.6 10.7 11.8 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.8 15.8 0.5 58.4 57.6 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------