***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 10.7 24.5 32.0 346.6 94.8 89.4 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 12.1 33.1 35.4 431.3 97.3 94.1 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 14.4 38.0 32.9 363.7 95.3 90.3 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 19.4 26.9 24.9 191.3 83.2 79.1 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 16.5 27.9 24.6 234.5 88.0 81.2 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 15.5 17.6 15.2 126.5 73.0 67.7 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 11.4 32.7 35.4 428.6 97.1 94.0 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 24.2 39.8 30.9 245.0 88.9 82.8 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 16.6 31.4 27.4 269.6 90.9 84.7 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 20.2 34.0 29.3 252.2 89.5 83.1 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 16.1 24.1 22.6 205.1 85.2 77.5 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 16.3 26.0 25.8 224.6 86.9 80.9 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 16.2 20.7 19.0 157.3 78.7 72.4 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 24.3 60.6 38.2 361.8 95.5 91.8 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 13.5 18.0 21.1 166.2 79.8 74.1 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 13.9 18.6 20.0 170.2 80.7 74.3 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 11.0 29.9 36.7 445.6 97.5 95.3 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 21.3 40.7 34.7 288.8 92.2 87.4 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.2 45.8 35.4 425.0 97.2 93.9 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 20.3 37.8 38.7 281.9 91.8 86.9 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 14.1 26.6 29.0 288.7 92.0 85.8 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 11.6 32.0 37.6 441.9 97.4 94.9 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 16.2 48.7 35.7 408.5 96.8 93.4 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 19.4 44.8 34.8 335.0 94.3 89.6 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 13.9 29.8 31.1 304.3 92.7 86.4 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 16.5 24.0 23.5 202.3 84.9 79.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 12.3 26.9 31.7 334.4 94.3 88.4 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 12.7 15.7 19.7 155.8 78.5 73.2 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 27.7 54.9 38.7 302.1 92.9 88.3 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 12.3 34.6 34.6 409.4 96.8 92.7 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------