***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.1 10.0 82.2 60.0 45.9 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.4 9.5 85.7 60.8 44.7 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.0 9.5 76.2 57.3 43.6 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.5 8.7 61.7 51.7 41.4 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.9 7.4 54.8 47.0 35.6 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.1 9.4 73.9 56.0 43.3 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.0 8.9 9.4 83.9 60.7 43.7 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.5 9.8 8.8 61.2 50.1 37.5 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.5 8.3 8.6 65.0 52.4 42.0 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.4 9.5 8.8 62.0 50.5 38.3 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.4 8.8 64.0 51.5 41.0 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.3 8.8 67.4 53.4 41.2 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.1 9.4 74.2 55.9 42.1 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.0 15.3 11.2 73.9 55.8 41.6 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.7 6.1 8.1 57.3 49.9 38.4 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.8 9.0 71.7 55.5 43.1 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.4 9.2 85.1 60.6 46.1 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.9 9.6 65.1 51.4 37.8 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.6 9.3 83.2 59.9 45.1 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.1 9.8 12.4 68.5 51.3 38.7 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.4 9.1 71.4 55.4 43.7 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.3 8.9 80.0 58.3 44.3 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.7 12.5 9.3 78.0 58.0 44.8 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.9 11.3 10.0 69.7 54.0 40.1 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.9 9.5 69.5 53.9 39.4 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.3 9.7 69.5 53.8 39.2 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.8 10.4 81.4 59.3 44.4 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.8 7.5 55.6 49.3 38.2 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.8 11.3 10.6 67.9 52.4 38.5 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 12.2 10.0 87.5 61.9 45.1 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------