***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 6.1 10.0 80.9 58.6 44.3 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.3 7.5 63.3 51.1 39.4 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.2 9.2 75.3 55.9 42.7 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.0 10.4 78.2 57.8 43.4 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.6 10.2 80.8 58.8 41.4 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.3 10.6 87.6 60.4 41.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.9 7.2 60.9 50.2 37.7 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.1 12.0 90.4 61.3 42.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.0 11.4 88.5 61.0 45.5 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.9 12.3 90.5 61.5 43.8 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.7 6.9 10.6 88.5 61.4 43.2 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.6 10.4 87.5 60.7 42.6 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.4 11.0 88.6 60.6 41.2 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.9 11.9 79.9 57.3 45.0 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.2 9.4 68.8 54.8 41.7 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.0 5.7 10.4 88.9 61.4 42.7 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.1 7.8 67.2 52.9 40.5 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.0 12.4 86.9 59.7 43.3 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.7 7.7 65.2 51.6 40.1 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.1 15.7 92.2 61.3 43.0 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.3 10.4 84.8 59.8 45.2 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.1 8.1 66.3 51.9 40.5 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.9 8.7 71.2 53.9 41.8 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.1 11.0 79.6 57.2 44.2 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.5 10.5 78.7 57.7 42.7 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.1 6.0 10.3 81.7 58.7 38.7 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.0 10.3 80.3 58.0 43.7 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.5 9.7 76.5 57.0 42.2 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.5 12.3 13.0 86.9 59.3 43.0 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.4 8.0 66.9 52.7 40.1 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------