***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.8 15.3 13.3 114.3 68.6 52.1 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 14.7 12.5 116.4 69.1 52.2 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.4 14.0 13.0 107.9 66.5 50.5 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 13.3 14.6 101.6 65.1 49.4 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.8 12.2 14.2 102.9 65.2 48.7 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.3 13.2 91.2 60.7 46.3 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.2 13.2 12.8 122.2 70.9 52.4 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.7 17.9 13.9 94.5 61.6 48.4 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.2 15.1 106.4 66.0 50.9 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.6 14.9 99.6 63.2 49.2 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.8 13.8 101.3 64.5 48.7 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.4 12.4 12.9 95.0 62.3 48.3 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.8 11.9 14.0 95.8 62.1 47.1 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.7 18.4 15.0 97.9 62.7 49.7 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.3 14.3 95.2 63.7 48.5 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.0 11.1 13.7 99.6 63.9 46.6 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.5 13.7 12.7 120.5 70.3 53.7 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.0 14.0 14.9 96.7 61.8 49.1 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.4 13.9 12.2 109.8 67.0 51.2 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.3 15.7 17.3 98.2 62.4 49.8 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.2 11.6 14.0 108.2 66.8 50.8 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.3 12.2 12.7 111.2 67.4 53.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.0 14.6 12.2 101.5 64.4 48.9 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.7 14.1 97.4 62.4 48.7 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.2 14.0 14.3 107.5 66.7 50.9 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.6 13.0 84.6 58.9 47.0 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 14.2 13.8 113.6 68.3 51.8 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.1 13.8 97.6 64.1 47.5 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 19.6 15.1 95.3 61.0 49.0 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.9 13.3 12.8 116.7 69.3 51.8 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------