***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 53.3 62.4 65.3 144.0 77.1 71.5 24.9 36.3 49.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 54.1 66.2 64.8 155.3 80.5 74.8 19.6 31.3 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 57.5 65.9 64.6 141.2 76.6 70.7 25.5 37.8 52.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 47.4 55.9 58.6 106.8 63.4 58.5 29.6 42.9 58.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 42.9 50.6 56.3 111.9 65.7 59.4 27.9 38.4 50.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 36.3 35.5 48.3 94.4 56.3 51.4 20.3 30.9 44.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 46.8 56.8 64.8 155.2 80.3 74.0 18.5 28.5 40.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 60.9 77.4 65.6 119.2 68.8 62.4 37.1 53.8 73.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 49.1 52.2 62.5 123.9 70.7 64.2 24.8 35.4 47.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 48.4 60.2 65.2 119.8 69.0 62.4 31.6 43.4 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 39.9 47.1 55.7 110.8 65.2 59.1 24.6 35.3 47.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 39.0 49.2 57.8 115.7 67.3 61.3 22.5 34.1 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 42.3 45.6 53.4 103.2 61.2 55.7 23.5 35.9 50.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 82.3 94.4 76.2 136.7 75.8 69.3 40.4 57.7 77.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 35.2 37.7 52.9 95.2 58.5 54.6 19.0 30.6 45.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 36.4 42.3 53.1 106.7 63.1 57.3 20.0 31.3 45.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 51.6 65.8 66.5 161.2 82.2 76.5 17.6 28.7 42.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 61.5 65.0 71.6 126.6 72.1 65.3 36.2 47.3 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 65.0 77.9 64.8 152.1 80.0 74.1 24.4 38.3 55.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 66.3 71.3 84.2 126.8 72.5 65.3 34.4 47.8 63.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 51.9 56.4 62.6 130.2 72.9 67.0 26.8 37.3 49.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 55.8 69.7 67.3 155.6 81.3 75.4 22.0 33.9 48.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 67.5 78.5 66.0 146.8 78.8 72.6 26.7 40.8 58.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 67.9 74.1 69.9 132.0 74.0 67.6 33.6 47.5 63.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 39.9 59.2 65.4 129.6 72.6 67.1 23.3 35.7 51.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 39.9 45.5 56.5 105.7 62.6 58.0 24.6 35.6 48.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 49.2 57.1 66.2 140.3 76.1 70.6 24.0 34.4 46.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 34.1 35.8 50.6 95.7 58.4 53.8 19.2 29.5 42.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 84.2 91.9 77.4 130.6 73.9 66.9 47.4 63.3 80.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 53.1 64.6 65.5 152.7 79.7 73.6 20.6 32.0 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------