***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 8.9 10.5 11.5 3.0 89.5 87.4 4.9 6.4 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 8.9 11.1 11.6 3.5 92.3 90.3 4.8 6.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.6 11.6 3.3 92.0 90.2 7.4 8.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 5.9 7.5 8.8 2.8 90.2 86.5 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 7.8 9.4 9.0 2.5 87.7 83.7 4.1 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 7.0 8.3 7.3 2.6 87.7 84.7 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 8.5 10.4 11.6 3.4 92.0 89.9 5.0 6.3 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 3.9 5.9 8.1 3.1 90.7 88.9 -0.4 1.1 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 8.7 10.0 9.4 2.4 87.8 84.5 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 8.4 9.8 8.5 2.9 90.0 87.6 5.0 6.2 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 7.7 8.8 8.5 2.4 86.0 83.0 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 6.9 8.1 8.3 2.7 86.7 84.7 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.7 7.2 1.9 79.4 75.9 3.9 5.3 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 8.8 11.0 10.5 3.6 94.4 92.6 5.6 6.8 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 7.9 8.6 9.1 1.9 83.0 79.6 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 8.4 9.4 7.8 2.1 82.9 79.3 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 8.3 10.4 11.5 3.8 93.9 91.8 5.0 6.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 7.3 9.0 8.0 3.1 91.4 89.6 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 8.7 10.7 11.6 3.4 92.5 90.6 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 4.2 5.9 6.4 3.1 90.1 88.4 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 8.6 10.2 10.7 2.7 89.0 86.5 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.2 11.6 3.8 95.0 93.0 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 8.5 10.7 11.4 3.4 93.3 91.3 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.8 9.6 9.9 3.3 93.2 91.3 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 9.0 10.5 10.1 2.7 88.0 85.2 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 7.2 8.2 7.9 2.5 84.6 81.1 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 9.7 11.4 10.5 2.7 87.3 84.7 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 6.6 7.9 8.9 2.4 88.0 84.4 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.8 7.4 3.0 90.9 88.9 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.2 11.2 11.7 3.3 91.5 89.5 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------