***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.4 8.1 1.6 69.3 64.7 2.4 4.3 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 5.8 6.3 7.9 1.6 70.8 65.9 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.3 7.7 1.6 70.0 65.5 4.8 6.4 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.3 5.0 1.3 66.6 62.6 0.0 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 5.0 5.0 5.5 1.4 68.2 64.2 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 4.3 4.1 3.7 1.1 66.2 62.9 1.2 2.7 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.6 6.0 7.9 1.6 70.1 65.0 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 1.5 1.3 4.4 1.4 67.4 64.3 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.0 6.3 1.6 69.1 65.1 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.5 5.0 1.5 68.1 64.5 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.1 5.1 1.4 68.0 64.3 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.4 4.8 1.3 66.4 63.5 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.4 4.3 1.1 65.2 62.4 1.4 3.0 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.8 6.4 1.7 71.6 66.9 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.5 5.4 1.1 64.7 61.2 2.6 4.1 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.8 4.6 1.2 66.2 62.9 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.3 7.8 1.7 71.4 66.2 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.2 4.1 4.6 1.5 67.9 64.5 1.2 2.6 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 5.9 6.3 7.8 1.6 71.5 66.6 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 1.6 1.4 3.5 1.4 67.6 64.4 -1.6 -0.2 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.9 7.2 1.6 69.0 64.9 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 5.1 5.7 7.8 1.8 73.0 67.5 1.8 3.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 5.9 6.2 7.5 1.6 71.9 67.1 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 5.5 5.5 6.1 1.5 69.7 65.6 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.1 6.2 1.4 68.2 64.0 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.0 4.5 4.5 0.9 63.1 61.1 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.7 7.2 1.5 68.9 64.5 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 4.3 4.1 5.1 1.2 65.6 61.9 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.6 4.4 4.2 1.5 68.1 64.8 0.9 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 6.3 6.6 8.0 1.6 70.2 65.4 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------