***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.4 5.8 0.4 54.9 54.5 2.4 4.0 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.6 5.5 0.4 55.2 55.5 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.9 5.5 0.4 55.6 55.2 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.8 0.7 3.2 0.4 55.6 54.7 -1.3 0.2 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.5 56.1 55.2 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.8 2.2 0.5 57.2 55.5 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.7 5.5 0.4 55.4 55.6 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -0.9 2.5 0.6 57.2 55.7 -3.2 -1.5 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.3 4.1 0.5 56.0 55.1 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.2 3.0 0.5 56.4 55.1 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.8 3.3 0.6 57.0 55.8 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.6 3.0 0.5 55.9 54.6 0.6 2.1 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.7 2.6 0.3 54.5 53.5 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.4 4.0 0.3 54.1 54.3 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.9 3.7 0.4 55.1 54.3 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.3 2.9 0.5 56.0 54.9 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 4.9 3.8 5.3 0.4 55.4 55.9 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.4 2.3 2.5 0.4 55.1 54.1 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.9 5.5 0.4 55.3 55.5 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -0.1 -0.2 1.4 0.5 56.0 55.1 -2.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.8 5.0 0.4 55.5 54.8 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.3 5.3 0.4 54.9 55.8 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.8 5.2 0.4 55.2 55.3 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.5 3.9 0.4 55.2 54.6 1.9 3.1 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.3 4.1 0.4 55.9 54.9 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.0 2.8 0.2 52.1 51.8 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.4 4.1 5.0 0.4 55.4 54.8 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.4 3.4 0.4 55.5 54.6 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.0 2.1 0.4 55.1 54.3 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.1 5.6 0.4 55.2 55.2 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------