***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 20.3 22.9 20.4 3.9 91.4 87.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 20.3 22.8 20.7 4.2 92.2 88.4 16.1 17.7 19.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 20.6 23.3 21.0 4.3 92.4 88.6 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 13.5 15.9 17.8 3.6 89.5 84.8 9.1 10.8 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 20.6 23.1 19.3 4.0 90.9 86.5 16.2 17.9 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 20.3 22.5 17.9 4.0 88.8 85.6 15.4 17.3 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 20.0 22.2 20.3 3.8 90.3 86.5 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 11.9 15.0 18.7 4.7 92.2 88.7 6.9 8.8 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 20.7 23.4 20.3 4.2 91.5 87.3 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 20.3 23.0 19.4 4.6 92.0 88.1 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 20.7 23.1 19.3 4.1 90.4 86.2 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 20.2 22.7 19.0 4.2 90.5 86.9 15.6 17.4 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 20.9 22.8 18.8 3.8 88.0 84.7 16.3 18.1 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 21.1 24.2 20.9 5.0 93.6 89.8 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 18.9 20.3 18.5 2.9 85.8 81.4 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 21.4 23.6 19.0 3.9 89.4 85.7 16.8 18.6 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 19.8 22.5 20.4 4.3 92.9 89.1 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 19.6 22.3 19.3 5.0 92.6 88.9 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 20.2 23.0 21.0 4.4 93.2 89.4 15.9 17.5 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 17.4 20.6 17.7 5.0 92.5 89.2 12.3 14.2 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 20.5 23.2 20.8 4.2 92.2 88.0 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 20.5 23.6 20.8 4.6 94.5 90.7 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 20.4 23.4 21.3 4.7 93.8 90.1 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 21.0 24.2 20.7 4.9 93.3 89.5 16.3 18.1 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 19.8 22.0 19.3 3.9 91.6 87.2 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 20.5 22.3 18.2 3.8 88.0 84.9 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 20.4 22.9 19.9 3.9 91.3 87.4 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 19.8 21.7 18.2 3.3 87.5 83.0 15.8 17.5 19.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 16.3 19.5 18.9 5.2 93.0 89.4 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 20.0 22.4 20.7 4.0 91.5 87.7 15.9 17.5 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------