***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.0 12.4 0.2 52.9 53.9 10.8 12.7 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.8 12.3 0.3 53.4 54.6 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.5 12.4 0.2 52.7 53.6 11.3 13.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.9 10.3 0.3 53.2 53.5 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.1 10.8 0.2 52.3 53.1 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.1 12.6 10.1 0.2 51.9 53.3 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.6 12.2 0.2 53.2 54.5 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.3 10.2 0.2 52.5 53.9 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.6 11.5 0.2 52.3 53.2 11.3 13.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.1 10.8 0.2 52.1 53.4 11.0 12.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.3 10.8 0.1 51.7 52.8 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.0 10.7 0.1 51.4 53.0 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.7 13.1 10.4 0.0 50.2 52.3 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.7 11.7 0.1 51.7 53.1 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.5 10.5 0.3 54.1 54.1 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.6 10.5 0.1 51.0 52.4 11.5 13.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.3 12.0 0.3 54.1 55.2 10.4 12.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.2 10.6 0.2 51.8 53.5 10.1 12.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.0 12.4 0.3 53.4 54.4 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 10.4 9.0 0.2 52.9 54.6 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.3 11.9 0.2 52.4 53.2 11.1 13.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.0 12.1 0.3 54.0 54.9 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.2 12.5 0.2 52.9 53.9 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.9 11.7 0.2 51.8 53.2 11.7 13.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.5 11.0 0.3 53.7 54.4 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.0 10.4 0.1 50.9 53.1 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.1 11.8 0.3 53.3 54.3 10.8 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.3 10.5 0.2 52.7 53.1 10.7 12.1 13.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.4 10.0 0.2 52.0 53.8 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.7 12.4 0.2 53.0 54.2 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------