***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 16.8 17.8 16.2 1.8 83.9 77.1 14.1 15.2 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 16.5 17.5 16.3 2.0 85.5 78.6 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 17.2 18.3 16.5 2.0 85.7 78.6 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 10.4 11.0 14.0 1.7 80.5 74.4 7.9 9.0 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 17.1 18.0 14.9 1.9 83.2 76.8 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 16.6 17.3 13.8 1.8 81.1 75.2 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 16.3 17.1 16.0 1.8 83.6 77.1 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 8.7 9.7 14.3 2.1 86.2 80.0 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 17.4 18.4 15.6 2.0 84.8 78.0 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 16.9 18.1 14.9 2.1 86.1 79.4 14.4 15.4 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 17.4 18.3 14.8 1.9 83.3 77.1 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 17.0 17.8 14.7 1.9 83.1 77.5 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 17.4 18.0 14.4 1.7 79.5 74.5 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 17.6 19.0 16.1 2.4 88.6 81.2 14.9 16.0 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 15.7 15.9 14.2 1.4 76.8 71.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 18.0 18.7 14.5 1.7 80.9 75.3 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.9 16.0 2.1 86.6 79.6 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 16.2 17.5 14.8 2.3 87.4 80.7 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 16.7 17.9 16.5 2.1 86.9 79.6 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 14.0 15.2 13.1 2.3 87.6 81.7 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 17.2 18.2 16.1 2.0 84.8 78.0 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 16.7 18.0 16.3 2.3 88.8 81.2 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 16.9 18.2 16.7 2.2 88.2 80.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 17.6 19.0 15.9 2.3 87.8 80.5 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 16.2 17.1 14.9 1.8 83.9 77.0 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.5 14.1 1.6 79.4 74.7 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 16.8 17.8 15.6 1.8 84.2 77.2 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 16.3 16.7 14.2 1.5 78.1 72.6 14.1 15.0 15.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 13.1 14.5 14.2 2.4 87.7 81.3 10.4 11.5 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.4 17.3 16.3 1.9 84.6 77.7 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------