***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.0 3.7 6.0 45.9 43.0 30.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.1 2.9 4.6 38.9 38.5 27.8 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.5 6.2 47.9 44.0 32.6 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 2.0 4.7 7.0 49.2 44.5 28.5 2.7 6.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.2 4.6 7.7 56.0 47.1 33.4 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.0 7.4 55.5 46.7 33.0 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.7 4.7 38.7 38.6 28.7 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.2 7.9 8.4 61.8 48.0 36.3 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.3 5.0 8.4 61.9 48.8 34.9 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 7.5 9.1 65.6 50.3 37.9 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.8 5.7 7.4 58.1 47.5 33.8 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.8 7.2 58.9 47.5 34.8 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.8 5.0 7.1 54.4 45.0 32.9 2.9 6.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.3 8.4 56.4 47.6 35.3 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 1.4 3.4 6.3 44.6 42.3 24.3 2.1 4.9 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 2.5 4.7 6.9 53.8 45.5 31.8 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.9 2.6 4.2 36.6 38.4 27.7 2.1 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.9 10.0 66.0 49.3 38.3 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.2 3.4 5.0 40.9 39.3 28.3 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.2 5.0 9.0 53.4 40.5 32.1 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.2 4.6 7.5 57.9 49.2 35.2 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 1.7 2.6 4.6 39.3 38.7 27.1 1.9 4.1 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.0 3.4 5.9 46.1 41.6 30.4 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.1 8.7 60.2 48.0 36.5 2.4 5.6 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 1.9 3.7 7.2 49.9 44.6 31.9 2.1 4.7 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.0 7.0 53.2 45.8 32.0 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.2 3.8 6.6 46.7 42.7 31.2 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.1 4.5 6.8 49.4 44.6 27.5 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.0 8.6 9.9 61.9 46.3 36.4 5.1 9.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.0 2.8 4.9 39.9 39.1 28.7 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------