***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 2.4 4.4 5.0 40.5 39.8 26.5 3.0 7.1 13.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.3 3.8 5.0 38.8 38.9 27.6 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.7 5.0 5.4 42.0 39.7 27.5 3.5 7.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 2.7 4.9 5.9 42.7 40.1 26.2 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.7 5.0 6.3 46.4 41.1 26.7 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 1.5 4.0 8.2 56.3 45.6 29.8 2.1 4.8 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 2.0 3.3 4.9 37.3 37.3 25.7 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 3.9 7.7 7.1 52.6 43.6 27.1 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 2.9 5.0 6.4 46.1 40.9 27.1 3.6 7.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 4.0 6.9 7.2 51.3 42.3 27.6 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.3 5.4 6.5 54.2 46.0 28.0 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 2.3 5.2 6.3 54.1 45.8 27.2 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 2.1 4.7 7.1 55.0 44.4 27.9 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.4 7.5 6.8 43.9 38.5 28.1 5.8 11.8 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.8 3.5 5.9 39.7 40.4 27.0 2.3 5.4 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 1.9 4.4 6.9 55.1 45.1 28.0 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 1.9 3.3 5.0 39.4 39.2 27.8 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 2.9 4.7 7.6 47.6 40.2 28.1 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 3.0 4.9 5.1 39.9 39.3 28.1 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 3.3 5.9 8.6 44.5 38.8 27.2 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.9 4.9 5.5 42.7 39.6 26.2 3.6 7.7 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.5 4.4 5.7 45.0 41.5 30.0 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.8 4.8 5.5 41.0 39.3 28.0 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.2 5.0 6.9 45.9 39.5 28.1 3.3 8.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.2 3.5 5.7 39.2 37.7 26.1 2.6 6.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 2.2 5.4 6.1 51.4 43.3 26.0 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.2 3.9 5.5 39.4 38.1 26.0 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 1.8 3.8 6.2 45.6 41.8 26.3 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 4.7 7.1 7.7 44.3 37.8 27.0 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 2.1 3.9 5.0 38.7 38.2 26.7 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------