***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.8 13.8 10.2 103.8 65.7 49.7 4.6 8.5 14.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.6 13.6 10.5 106.9 65.7 47.9 3.7 7.7 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.2 13.2 10.3 104.4 65.3 48.1 4.2 8.0 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.9 17.7 12.3 116.5 69.0 50.5 3.5 8.2 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.6 11.2 112.0 67.5 48.7 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.1 11.6 12.2 119.1 69.3 46.1 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.1 11.7 10.4 107.0 65.8 47.9 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.0 20.7 11.6 108.0 65.9 47.1 4.7 11.0 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.1 10.9 11.0 108.9 66.3 46.8 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.8 12.6 11.6 108.7 66.0 46.9 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.1 10.3 109.8 66.9 48.0 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.6 13.9 10.4 110.5 67.2 47.5 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.5 14.4 11.1 111.2 67.1 46.1 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.9 19.9 13.4 113.5 67.9 49.6 6.7 12.0 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.9 13.6 13.5 116.0 68.7 47.9 2.6 6.1 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.4 13.1 10.4 110.5 66.9 46.9 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.5 13.5 10.6 106.3 65.9 47.2 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.3 14.7 12.7 107.0 65.1 46.5 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 13.2 10.6 108.0 66.1 48.3 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.6 14.3 15.1 97.5 61.8 45.3 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.8 11.0 10.4 108.5 66.5 47.9 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.4 13.1 10.8 108.1 66.4 47.4 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 14.9 11.1 110.0 66.8 48.9 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.2 13.6 12.1 109.3 66.4 47.8 4.2 8.1 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.5 13.8 12.0 113.0 68.4 52.2 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.9 10.9 104.0 65.2 46.5 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.9 13.3 11.5 109.3 67.4 51.8 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.8 12.4 12.3 116.6 68.8 48.3 2.5 5.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.6 21.2 13.8 104.0 64.4 46.9 6.9 13.3 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.5 10.3 104.4 65.2 48.4 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------