***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 24.1 30.2 33.4 73.7 41.9 38.0 24.6 35.6 48.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 18.1 21.3 31.7 69.7 37.4 35.0 18.7 29.9 44.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.7 27.9 33.5 73.4 40.0 37.3 23.4 35.2 49.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 48.8 37.4 40.1 79.2 45.0 40.9 28.2 41.5 57.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 41.7 33.5 38.7 80.4 45.1 41.5 26.9 36.4 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 18.9 27.0 42.4 85.1 46.8 42.4 19.2 28.9 40.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 16.7 19.9 32.3 70.1 37.8 34.9 17.3 27.2 39.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 59.6 44.5 40.8 82.1 44.2 41.2 34.6 50.2 68.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.6 28.8 38.5 79.8 43.2 40.4 23.3 32.8 43.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 30.9 38.3 41.6 82.5 44.5 41.5 31.4 41.9 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 39.5 31.9 36.9 83.1 46.6 42.8 24.1 34.0 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.8 29.8 36.1 83.3 46.4 42.4 21.6 32.1 44.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 21.5 30.2 38.5 83.2 45.8 42.2 21.6 33.4 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 37.0 45.5 42.5 77.8 40.7 37.9 38.7 54.6 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.6 25.0 41.1 76.0 43.7 39.1 17.9 29.8 44.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 19.3 27.0 37.1 83.0 46.0 42.1 19.0 29.7 42.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 17.4 19.7 31.0 67.9 35.5 33.9 18.3 29.3 43.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 33.7 39.7 45.3 80.4 41.3 39.0 35.1 44.7 55.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.6 25.8 32.0 70.3 37.8 35.4 22.3 35.4 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 31.2 36.2 52.2 74.8 36.1 35.5 34.1 47.0 61.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 24.7 30.8 35.3 78.1 43.6 40.2 24.7 34.8 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 20.4 23.3 32.2 69.7 36.4 34.6 21.1 32.9 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 23.3 28.4 34.0 72.6 38.5 36.1 24.4 37.8 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 31.1 38.1 40.8 78.2 40.7 38.4 32.6 45.4 60.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 41.4 28.2 38.7 75.6 42.4 38.7 21.8 34.1 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 41.3 30.5 37.0 80.5 44.2 40.5 23.4 34.7 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 38.8 26.7 36.8 73.7 41.2 37.4 21.6 32.2 44.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 35.0 25.7 40.1 80.4 45.8 41.3 18.3 28.6 41.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 44.2 51.5 48.0 77.9 38.7 37.2 46.9 60.9 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 18.8 22.4 32.1 70.4 38.5 35.7 19.0 30.3 44.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------