***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 8.2 10.0 1.9 73.0 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.8 9.4 1.6 71.0 69.3 4.7 6.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 10.0 10.3 9.9 1.9 74.6 73.0 7.2 8.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 5.5 6.2 8.3 2.5 82.2 80.2 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 7.6 8.3 8.8 2.4 81.3 79.5 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 6.9 7.9 6.8 2.6 84.6 82.4 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.6 9.4 1.6 70.4 68.8 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 3.4 3.7 6.9 2.1 77.5 76.1 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 8.4 9.1 9.2 2.4 82.0 80.2 5.0 6.3 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 8.0 8.5 7.8 2.3 79.7 78.1 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 7.5 8.1 8.3 2.3 81.4 79.7 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 6.6 7.2 7.5 2.2 79.7 78.2 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 7.2 8.1 7.8 2.6 84.3 82.5 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 8.2 8.4 8.7 1.9 75.8 74.0 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 8.0 8.8 9.5 2.6 85.3 83.1 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 8.6 9.5 8.2 2.6 84.7 82.8 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 7.3 7.3 8.8 1.3 67.9 66.2 4.9 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 6.9 7.2 6.9 2.2 77.8 76.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.7 8.0 9.5 1.7 72.8 70.9 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 3.6 3.9 5.1 2.2 75.8 74.5 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 8.0 8.5 9.9 2.1 77.7 76.0 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 6.6 6.7 8.9 1.3 68.2 66.2 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.2 9.6 1.9 75.6 73.6 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 7.3 7.6 8.5 2.1 77.4 75.8 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 8.4 8.7 9.3 2.1 75.5 73.9 5.0 6.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 7.3 8.0 7.8 2.6 83.6 81.5 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 8.7 9.0 9.6 2.0 74.1 72.6 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 6.6 7.4 8.8 2.5 84.0 81.9 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 6.3 6.6 6.2 2.2 77.4 76.1 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.3 9.7 1.7 72.1 70.4 5.0 6.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------