***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 7.3 8.7 1.0 62.8 61.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.9 8.5 1.3 66.1 64.7 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.2 8.6 8.5 1.1 64.5 63.5 6.1 7.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 4.2 3.5 6.2 0.8 59.9 59.8 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.3 5.7 6.6 1.0 61.9 61.4 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.2 5.1 1.1 63.8 63.0 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.7 8.4 1.3 65.6 64.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 2.1 1.5 5.6 1.2 63.7 62.9 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 7.5 6.9 7.3 1.2 64.1 63.0 4.3 5.7 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 6.9 6.4 6.1 1.2 63.6 62.8 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.5 5.9 6.3 1.0 62.6 62.0 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.1 6.1 1.0 62.6 61.9 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.6 5.6 1.0 62.8 62.0 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 7.6 7.2 7.4 1.4 67.3 65.6 4.6 5.9 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 6.1 5.6 6.5 0.7 59.8 59.7 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.7 5.8 1.0 61.8 61.4 4.6 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 7.1 6.8 8.4 1.4 67.3 65.4 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 6.0 5.4 5.7 1.2 64.3 63.3 3.0 4.3 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 7.2 6.7 8.5 1.3 66.3 65.1 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 3.1 2.6 4.7 1.4 65.2 64.2 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 7.0 6.3 8.1 1.1 63.0 62.1 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 6.6 6.3 8.4 1.5 68.3 66.4 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 7.0 6.5 8.3 1.3 66.6 65.4 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 6.7 6.2 7.1 1.3 65.7 64.4 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 7.5 6.9 7.3 1.0 62.7 61.7 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.1 6.0 1.2 64.9 63.4 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.8 7.2 8.1 1.1 63.4 62.1 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 5.1 4.6 6.3 0.8 59.7 59.7 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 5.4 4.8 5.3 1.3 64.8 63.7 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.0 8.6 1.2 65.1 63.9 4.1 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------