***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 3.3 5.1 0.3 53.4 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.3 4.6 0.2 52.7 52.6 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.7 4.8 0.3 54.6 53.9 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.7 0.4 2.7 0.4 54.8 54.0 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.0 3.3 3.0 0.4 55.1 54.3 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.7 1.4 0.5 56.3 56.3 0.6 2.1 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.4 4.6 0.2 52.8 52.5 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.0 -1.2 2.1 0.6 57.2 56.2 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.1 3.7 0.4 55.2 54.4 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.9 2.7 0.5 56.3 55.4 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.7 2.9 0.6 57.0 56.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 0.0 2.7 2.6 0.6 57.8 56.7 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.6 3.0 2.1 0.5 56.8 56.2 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.4 3.7 0.4 55.2 54.1 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.8 3.1 0.4 55.9 54.8 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.4 2.4 0.5 57.0 56.0 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.4 4.5 0.2 52.8 52.3 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.2 2.1 2.2 0.5 56.1 55.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.6 4.7 0.2 53.3 52.9 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -0.5 1.0 0.4 55.1 54.6 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.6 4.5 0.4 54.5 53.8 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.1 4.5 0.2 52.4 52.0 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.7 4.6 0.4 54.7 53.8 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.1 3.3 3.6 0.5 56.0 54.9 1.5 2.8 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.0 3.5 0.3 54.0 53.4 2.0 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.8 3.3 2.2 0.5 55.9 55.7 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.1 3.8 4.3 0.3 53.5 52.8 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.3 2.8 0.4 55.8 54.8 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.0 1.8 1.8 0.5 55.8 55.0 -0.4 1.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.8 4.8 0.2 53.1 52.8 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------