***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 5.5 7.6 0.9 68.1 64.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.6 7.2 0.9 67.9 64.4 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.8 7.4 1.0 69.4 65.5 6.1 6.9 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 3.0 3.0 5.3 1.0 70.5 66.8 1.1 1.9 2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 5.0 5.0 5.8 1.0 71.3 67.1 3.3 4.1 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 4.4 4.5 4.0 1.1 73.2 68.9 2.6 3.4 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 5.5 5.4 7.2 0.8 67.6 64.0 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.9 0.9 4.5 1.1 70.6 66.7 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 5.9 6.0 6.4 1.1 72.3 67.6 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.6 5.2 1.1 71.2 66.9 4.0 4.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.2 5.4 1.1 71.9 67.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 4.3 4.3 5.1 1.1 71.2 67.2 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 4.7 4.7 4.8 1.1 72.6 68.3 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.1 6.2 1.0 70.8 66.3 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.6 5.6 5.9 1.0 71.8 68.2 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.2 5.0 1.1 72.9 68.6 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.5 6.9 0.8 67.3 63.7 3.9 4.7 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.2 4.2 4.6 1.1 70.2 66.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.6 7.2 0.9 68.8 65.0 4.0 4.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 1.3 1.4 3.3 1.1 69.7 66.0 -0.4 0.4 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 5.6 5.6 7.1 1.0 70.2 66.0 3.8 4.6 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.9 4.9 7.0 0.8 67.7 64.0 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.5 7.1 1.0 70.2 66.1 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 5.1 5.1 6.1 1.1 70.7 66.5 3.6 4.3 4.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 6.0 6.0 6.3 1.0 69.2 65.6 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 5.0 5.2 4.9 1.1 73.0 68.6 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.1 7.0 0.9 68.8 65.2 4.1 5.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 4.2 4.2 5.5 1.0 71.3 67.6 2.5 3.2 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 3.9 4.0 4.1 1.1 70.0 66.2 2.0 2.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.9 5.9 7.4 0.9 68.2 64.6 4.1 5.0 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------