***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 17.6 16.9 0.6 57.0 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 17.7 17.7 16.6 0.4 54.8 54.4 15.7 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 17.9 18.1 16.9 0.6 55.9 55.3 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 10.9 11.3 14.7 0.8 58.3 57.4 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 18.0 18.5 16.0 0.9 59.4 58.4 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 17.5 18.2 14.9 1.2 61.0 60.1 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 17.3 17.5 16.5 0.5 55.5 55.0 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 9.1 9.7 14.8 1.0 59.3 58.4 6.8 8.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 18.1 18.6 16.8 0.9 59.2 58.1 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 17.7 18.1 15.5 0.9 58.1 57.3 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 18.0 18.6 16.0 1.0 59.6 58.6 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 17.6 18.3 15.6 1.1 60.9 59.9 15.4 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 18.3 19.0 16.0 1.2 61.7 60.7 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 18.4 18.3 16.0 0.3 53.0 52.6 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 16.9 17.2 15.8 0.6 57.2 56.5 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 18.8 19.4 15.9 1.1 60.7 59.7 16.6 18.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 17.1 17.1 16.2 0.4 54.9 54.3 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 17.1 17.1 14.7 0.5 54.5 54.1 15.1 16.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 17.6 17.6 16.7 0.4 54.9 54.4 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.6 13.0 0.5 54.5 54.2 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 17.9 18.3 17.0 0.7 57.6 56.7 15.9 17.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 17.8 17.8 16.2 0.4 54.2 53.6 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 17.9 17.9 16.8 0.5 55.2 54.6 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 18.3 18.2 16.0 0.4 54.2 53.7 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 17.3 17.7 15.9 0.8 58.3 57.4 15.5 17.0 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 17.9 19.0 15.6 1.6 65.3 63.8 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 17.8 18.1 16.4 0.7 57.5 56.8 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 17.6 17.9 15.4 0.7 57.8 57.0 15.5 17.2 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 13.6 13.7 14.1 0.5 54.7 54.3 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 17.5 17.6 16.8 0.5 55.4 54.9 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------