***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 17.9 16.8 1.8 70.3 67.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 17.9 17.9 16.6 1.8 71.0 68.0 13.9 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 18.5 18.7 17.1 2.0 72.2 68.9 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 11.8 11.8 15.2 1.9 70.1 66.8 7.5 9.5 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 18.6 18.7 16.0 2.2 72.4 68.8 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 17.9 18.3 15.2 2.6 74.2 69.9 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 17.8 17.7 16.4 1.7 70.5 67.6 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.4 15.5 2.7 75.4 71.3 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 19.0 19.3 16.6 2.3 73.5 69.7 14.6 16.5 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 18.3 18.7 16.0 2.6 74.6 70.6 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 18.9 19.2 16.0 2.4 73.6 69.9 14.5 16.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 18.4 18.9 16.1 2.6 74.7 70.8 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 18.9 19.4 15.8 2.6 74.3 70.3 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 18.9 19.4 16.8 2.5 74.6 70.7 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 16.9 16.7 15.0 1.7 68.5 65.1 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 19.5 19.9 15.8 2.4 73.4 69.6 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.5 16.3 1.9 72.2 68.7 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 17.6 18.1 15.8 2.7 75.2 71.2 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 18.1 18.2 16.9 1.9 71.9 68.7 13.8 15.7 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 15.3 15.9 14.1 2.8 76.4 72.4 11.0 12.9 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 18.5 18.7 16.9 2.1 72.2 68.7 14.4 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 18.0 18.4 16.6 2.0 73.3 69.6 14.0 15.8 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 18.4 18.6 17.2 2.1 73.3 69.7 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 19.0 19.5 16.8 2.5 74.5 70.6 14.6 16.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 17.4 17.6 15.5 1.8 70.8 67.4 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 18.3 18.9 15.7 2.6 75.7 71.3 14.7 16.3 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.2 16.1 1.8 70.4 67.3 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.3 15.4 1.9 69.8 66.4 13.6 15.3 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 14.5 15.1 15.1 2.8 75.7 71.7 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 17.9 17.9 16.8 1.8 70.7 67.8 13.8 15.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------