***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 14.8 13.8 0.8 59.1 58.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.1 13.6 0.6 57.5 56.9 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.4 14.1 0.8 59.6 58.6 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 11.3 9.7 12.0 0.6 56.7 56.5 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 17.3 16.2 12.7 0.8 59.1 58.2 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 16.9 15.8 11.9 1.0 60.0 58.9 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.8 13.5 0.6 57.8 57.1 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 9.2 8.4 12.1 0.9 60.2 59.3 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 17.7 16.6 13.4 1.0 60.8 59.3 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 17.3 16.3 12.7 1.0 60.8 59.5 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 17.7 16.6 12.7 0.9 59.6 58.7 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 17.4 16.2 12.6 0.9 59.6 58.8 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 17.8 16.5 12.4 0.9 59.4 58.6 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.8 16.7 13.5 0.9 59.8 58.7 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.5 12.0 0.4 55.2 55.2 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 18.4 17.2 12.5 0.8 59.2 58.4 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.2 13.3 0.6 57.3 56.5 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 16.4 15.4 12.5 1.1 61.2 59.9 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.4 13.8 0.7 58.0 57.3 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.5 10.6 1.0 60.2 59.4 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 17.3 16.3 13.7 0.9 60.1 58.9 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.0 13.5 0.6 57.2 56.3 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.6 14.1 0.8 59.0 58.1 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 17.8 16.8 13.6 1.1 61.0 59.6 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.1 12.5 0.7 58.2 57.7 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 17.0 16.0 12.2 0.9 59.9 58.9 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.8 13.1 0.7 58.7 58.0 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.2 12.2 0.6 56.5 56.3 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.8 12.7 11.8 1.1 60.7 59.7 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.1 13.8 0.7 57.9 57.4 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------