***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 12.0 11.6 0.0 50.1 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.1 11.5 0.0 50.6 50.7 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.9 11.8 0.0 50.3 50.5 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.1 9.8 -0.1 49.1 49.9 4.3 6.2 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.5 10.3 -0.1 49.4 50.2 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.0 9.3 0.0 50.2 51.2 9.9 12.0 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.0 11.4 0.1 51.0 51.1 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.6 9.5 -0.1 49.0 50.2 2.9 4.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.1 10.9 0.0 49.8 50.5 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.3 12.5 10.1 -0.1 49.2 50.2 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.8 12.9 10.2 0.0 49.9 50.7 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.5 10.1 0.0 49.8 50.8 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.8 9.8 0.0 49.9 51.0 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.3 11.2 0.0 49.8 49.8 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.7 9.9 0.0 50.2 50.4 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.3 10.0 0.0 49.7 50.6 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.7 11.2 0.1 50.9 51.0 10.0 11.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.5 11.5 9.8 -0.2 48.5 49.4 9.8 11.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.4 11.7 0.0 50.5 50.6 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.3 7.9 -0.3 46.8 48.6 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.8 11.4 0.0 49.7 50.2 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.2 11.3 0.0 50.3 50.4 10.5 12.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.6 11.9 0.1 50.5 50.4 10.7 12.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.1 13.4 11.1 0.0 49.7 50.0 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.5 11.8 10.2 -0.1 49.3 49.9 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.6 9.7 0.0 50.3 51.4 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.2 12.4 10.9 0.0 49.8 50.2 10.5 12.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.5 10.0 0.0 49.5 50.1 10.1 11.6 12.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.7 9.1 -0.2 48.0 49.1 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.1 11.6 0.0 50.5 50.6 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------