***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 15.3 14.8 0.8 65.1 62.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.6 14.5 0.7 63.8 61.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.5 15.0 0.9 65.8 62.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.9 9.7 12.9 0.8 64.8 61.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.5 13.7 1.0 67.4 63.3 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.1 12.8 1.2 69.6 64.6 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.4 14.4 0.7 64.2 61.3 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.2 13.0 1.1 69.2 64.4 6.2 7.2 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 16.9 16.9 14.4 1.1 68.5 63.9 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.4 13.6 1.1 68.5 63.8 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.8 13.7 1.1 68.5 63.9 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.5 13.6 1.1 69.7 64.6 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.0 13.5 1.2 69.6 64.5 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 17.0 16.8 14.4 0.9 65.6 61.7 14.7 15.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.0 13.2 0.7 63.5 60.9 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.5 13.6 1.1 68.6 64.0 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.0 14.2 0.7 64.5 61.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.5 13.2 1.0 67.0 62.7 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.8 14.8 0.8 64.5 61.5 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 12.6 13.3 11.4 1.0 66.6 62.7 11.2 12.3 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 16.6 16.5 14.7 0.9 66.8 62.9 14.4 15.5 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.8 14.4 0.7 64.5 61.3 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.1 15.0 0.9 65.7 62.2 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.9 14.3 1.0 66.6 62.5 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.5 13.5 0.8 65.4 62.1 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.7 13.3 1.3 72.1 66.2 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.1 14.2 0.8 65.1 61.9 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.8 15.5 13.3 0.8 64.7 61.6 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.5 12.5 1.0 66.9 62.8 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.6 14.7 0.7 64.1 61.3 13.8 14.8 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------