***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 20.2 27.5 255.5 90.8 80.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 11.6 20.7 23.2 231.7 88.8 77.0 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 12.3 25.4 28.7 263.8 91.3 81.4 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 15.8 30.4 33.0 235.3 88.8 79.8 2.7 6.2 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 13.5 24.5 30.2 230.0 88.7 80.1 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 12.0 17.9 28.6 191.4 83.9 75.2 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 11.3 20.1 22.2 225.5 88.4 76.4 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 18.1 27.9 29.5 215.4 86.5 78.7 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 13.8 24.8 29.2 233.6 89.0 80.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 18.5 32.5 31.9 237.5 89.1 81.0 4.2 8.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 15.4 25.7 28.3 227.0 87.8 79.2 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 12.7 19.3 25.9 203.0 85.1 77.3 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 12.7 18.6 27.0 188.8 83.5 75.8 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 20.5 40.1 33.6 262.9 91.9 81.1 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 12.5 24.0 33.9 223.0 87.5 76.5 1.8 4.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 12.0 18.0 27.4 206.9 85.7 76.9 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 11.0 19.2 19.8 221.7 88.0 75.3 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 16.3 28.9 33.9 237.2 89.3 81.1 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 14.7 26.6 24.7 237.1 89.3 77.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 17.6 25.9 32.3 190.2 83.9 77.6 3.4 7.4 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 11.9 22.7 28.9 252.7 90.3 81.7 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 12.5 21.0 20.9 217.0 87.5 76.5 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 14.3 25.6 27.2 244.7 90.0 78.4 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 17.5 36.3 33.4 261.1 91.5 81.5 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 12.0 21.7 28.6 230.8 88.9 80.3 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 13.7 18.4 24.8 170.3 80.8 73.8 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 12.4 22.5 26.7 230.3 88.7 79.1 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 12.4 21.3 32.9 228.4 88.2 77.9 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 22.7 36.6 33.0 217.3 87.1 79.4 5.3 10.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 12.2 22.2 24.9 238.3 89.5 78.3 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------