***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 8.6 8.9 75.7 53.9 39.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.8 11.1 96.8 62.5 43.8 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.0 10.5 91.1 59.5 43.2 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.5 8.1 9.4 71.8 51.1 36.3 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.2 10.8 87.0 57.5 42.8 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.9 10.6 74.2 52.9 39.1 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.4 11.1 95.5 62.6 43.9 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.7 11.2 11.7 85.5 56.9 42.1 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.4 11.5 94.9 60.4 45.1 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.9 12.2 91.8 59.3 44.2 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.1 9.7 82.8 56.2 41.4 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.4 9.6 83.2 56.2 40.4 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.5 8.1 10.4 81.6 55.5 40.6 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 5.8 18.8 13.4 100.0 62.6 44.5 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.5 6.5 9.7 70.3 53.0 37.8 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.9 80.6 55.4 41.5 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.9 11.2 96.1 63.6 44.7 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.2 14.6 95.1 60.0 45.0 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.3 11.1 97.3 62.4 44.2 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.8 17.8 87.7 57.5 44.4 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.4 10.2 89.9 59.0 43.4 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.1 9.6 11.2 92.1 61.5 44.7 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.2 14.0 11.8 101.1 63.3 45.4 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.0 14.2 13.1 98.4 61.6 45.0 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.0 10.5 81.3 56.2 43.5 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.3 7.7 9.3 74.4 53.2 37.0 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.7 9.9 77.1 54.6 41.6 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.5 6.0 9.4 70.9 51.8 37.3 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.9 14.8 16.5 95.6 60.3 45.5 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.0 9.5 10.7 92.7 60.6 43.0 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------