***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 3.3 9.6 71.8 53.9 41.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.0 10.0 73.0 54.6 42.1 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.8 10.0 71.4 53.3 42.4 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.3 11.6 78.4 56.5 43.5 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.1 11.2 75.4 54.3 43.9 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.3 13.8 87.4 59.0 47.1 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.8 9.8 73.1 54.4 41.0 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 7.3 5.3 12.0 71.4 50.7 42.5 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.6 11.0 72.1 52.3 42.7 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.7 11.5 70.4 50.3 41.9 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.6 10.2 71.1 52.1 42.2 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.6 10.9 74.8 52.9 43.5 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.9 12.5 83.9 56.9 46.9 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.1 12.2 72.9 52.3 42.7 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.3 12.1 80.2 58.0 44.0 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.0 11.3 78.2 55.4 44.8 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.5 10.7 81.0 58.1 42.9 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.0 13.4 73.8 51.0 43.1 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.1 10.1 72.5 54.6 43.1 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.9 17.5 77.5 53.3 45.6 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.8 10.2 71.0 52.4 41.8 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.6 11.4 86.1 59.7 45.1 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.1 10.3 71.1 54.0 43.6 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.9 11.5 70.7 50.7 41.7 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.8 11.6 77.8 55.7 44.2 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.9 12.7 85.8 58.1 47.2 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.5 10.9 75.9 55.1 43.5 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.5 11.7 79.0 57.0 43.7 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 7.6 15.1 75.8 52.0 44.0 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.9 9.9 72.0 54.2 42.3 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------