***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 44.2 55.5 119.4 69.0 62.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 36.8 47.0 53.2 117.0 67.9 60.2 19.6 30.9 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 53.7 56.4 58.4 124.8 72.1 64.0 22.9 34.8 49.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 61.8 63.0 64.5 122.4 70.6 64.3 26.9 40.4 57.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 50.8 52.8 63.0 124.8 72.2 64.9 26.2 36.2 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 32.0 38.5 65.1 115.1 66.9 60.5 17.7 26.8 37.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 43.2 41.5 52.1 115.8 67.3 59.8 17.3 27.5 40.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 56.3 72.7 65.6 120.5 69.9 63.1 34.5 49.4 67.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 47.1 50.0 62.4 124.2 72.6 64.4 23.3 33.0 44.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 55.5 59.0 67.5 125.7 73.2 65.7 30.7 40.9 52.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 47.7 49.6 58.8 122.9 71.1 63.8 24.5 34.2 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 36.7 47.3 57.2 118.9 69.0 62.0 21.4 31.9 44.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 51.4 48.8 61.6 118.0 68.7 61.6 18.7 30.8 45.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 76.6 84.9 70.6 128.4 74.2 65.6 38.7 54.6 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 47.7 47.0 66.0 119.1 69.0 62.9 15.7 27.5 43.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 46.1 45.4 59.4 119.8 69.6 62.5 18.7 29.1 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 48.9 46.2 50.5 115.8 67.2 59.5 19.2 30.7 44.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 56.1 59.8 74.9 125.8 73.4 65.9 33.9 43.4 53.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 42.6 55.8 54.9 119.0 68.9 60.9 22.6 35.7 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 52.9 62.9 84.8 114.3 66.8 60.6 34.1 47.2 62.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 49.8 53.1 59.4 125.8 72.5 65.1 22.8 33.7 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 41.6 51.8 52.9 117.0 67.9 60.2 22.6 34.8 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 57.6 60.4 58.5 122.7 70.9 62.6 24.7 38.1 54.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 64.0 70.3 68.9 128.3 74.5 66.0 32.3 45.1 60.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 52.7 52.9 61.8 119.9 69.4 63.2 22.0 34.0 48.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 36.4 44.3 57.7 111.0 64.7 59.1 19.2 30.8 45.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 36.9 45.4 58.1 116.1 67.4 61.3 20.9 31.4 44.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 44.2 45.0 64.3 121.2 70.1 63.6 17.3 27.5 40.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 79.1 82.4 78.7 121.3 70.8 63.9 45.9 60.3 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 36.6 47.1 54.5 118.0 68.3 60.9 19.8 30.9 44.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------