***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 8.6 9.8 12.1 3.8 87.3 86.5 4.7 6.1 7.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 8.5 9.1 11.0 3.2 83.2 82.6 4.7 6.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 10.6 11.3 11.6 3.2 84.6 83.9 7.2 8.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 5.7 6.8 9.3 3.5 87.4 86.5 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 7.8 8.7 10.1 3.3 85.0 84.2 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.1 8.4 7.9 3.6 88.4 87.5 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 8.2 8.7 11.0 3.2 82.6 81.9 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 3.7 4.4 7.5 2.9 82.9 82.0 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 8.6 9.2 9.6 2.8 83.3 82.5 5.0 6.3 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 8.2 8.7 8.0 2.8 82.2 81.3 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 7.7 8.2 9.1 2.7 82.2 81.3 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 7.0 7.7 8.6 3.1 84.3 83.5 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 7.2 7.7 7.9 2.5 80.6 79.7 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 8.5 8.7 8.7 2.3 78.2 77.4 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 8.1 8.6 9.9 2.5 83.0 82.0 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 8.6 9.2 8.5 2.8 82.2 81.3 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 8.1 8.7 10.7 3.3 83.8 83.2 4.9 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 7.2 7.7 7.5 2.8 82.1 81.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 8.5 9.1 11.0 3.1 83.1 82.5 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 4.0 4.3 6.3 2.9 80.2 79.6 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 8.5 9.2 10.7 2.9 83.5 82.7 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 7.5 8.1 10.7 2.9 82.8 82.3 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 8.4 8.9 10.8 2.8 82.4 81.7 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 7.6 7.9 9.0 2.6 80.7 79.9 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 8.9 10.2 11.6 3.9 87.9 87.0 5.0 6.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.5 8.3 8.3 3.3 85.6 84.9 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 9.5 10.7 11.6 3.7 85.7 84.9 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 6.7 7.5 9.0 3.0 84.1 83.2 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 6.5 6.7 6.6 2.5 78.1 77.5 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 8.8 9.5 11.4 3.3 83.6 82.9 5.0 6.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------