***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 7.3 8.1 10.3 2.6 79.5 74.2 4.1 5.5 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 7.4 8.2 9.7 2.4 78.9 74.0 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 9.3 10.1 10.2 2.4 79.4 74.7 6.1 7.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 4.5 5.2 7.1 2.2 76.8 72.7 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 6.5 7.1 8.2 2.3 77.7 72.9 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.3 5.9 2.1 76.9 73.1 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 7.1 7.9 9.7 2.4 78.5 73.2 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 2.3 2.9 6.2 2.2 77.8 73.8 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 7.6 8.4 8.3 2.3 79.2 74.1 4.3 5.7 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 7.0 7.5 6.9 2.2 78.3 74.0 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 6.6 7.1 7.6 2.1 77.3 72.7 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 5.9 6.3 6.9 2.1 76.9 72.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 6.2 6.5 6.5 1.9 74.0 70.4 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 7.6 8.2 8.1 2.2 77.7 73.4 4.6 5.9 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.7 8.3 2.0 76.1 72.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.8 6.9 2.0 75.6 71.4 4.6 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.9 9.4 2.4 78.1 73.4 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 6.2 6.6 6.3 2.2 77.4 73.4 3.0 4.3 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 7.2 7.9 9.7 2.4 78.7 74.1 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 3.2 3.6 5.0 2.1 76.1 72.6 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.8 9.4 2.3 78.6 73.7 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 6.5 7.1 9.3 2.2 77.5 73.3 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 6.9 7.6 9.6 2.2 78.5 74.0 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 6.8 7.3 8.0 2.2 78.2 73.7 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 7.5 8.4 9.4 2.5 79.0 73.9 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 6.6 6.8 6.4 1.9 74.6 71.0 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.8 8.7 9.8 2.5 78.1 72.7 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 5.3 5.7 7.2 2.0 75.0 71.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 5.6 6.1 5.8 2.2 77.2 73.5 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 7.6 8.5 10.0 2.5 79.5 74.4 4.1 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------