***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.8 8.2 2.0 73.4 67.0 2.4 4.3 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.4 7.7 2.0 73.9 67.4 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.8 8.2 2.0 75.4 68.7 4.8 6.4 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 3.7 4.0 5.4 1.8 72.9 67.1 -0.1 1.6 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 5.2 5.4 5.8 1.8 72.7 67.1 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 4.6 4.6 4.0 1.8 71.8 66.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.2 7.7 1.9 73.0 66.7 2.3 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 1.9 2.0 4.3 1.9 73.0 67.6 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 6.2 6.5 6.3 1.9 73.7 67.7 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 5.9 6.1 5.0 2.0 73.6 67.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 5.3 5.5 5.3 1.8 72.1 66.8 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 4.7 4.8 4.8 1.8 72.2 66.9 1.0 2.6 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 4.7 4.7 4.4 1.7 70.8 65.9 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 6.5 7.1 6.4 2.1 75.6 69.2 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.4 6.3 1.8 74.4 68.0 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.1 4.8 1.7 71.1 66.0 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.4 7.5 1.9 73.6 67.2 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 4.3 4.6 4.4 2.0 73.5 67.8 1.1 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.6 7.8 2.0 75.2 68.6 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 1.8 1.8 3.2 2.0 71.9 66.9 -1.7 -0.2 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 6.1 6.5 7.4 2.0 74.1 67.8 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.4 6.0 7.5 2.0 75.5 68.9 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.6 7.8 2.1 76.4 69.7 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 5.5 6.0 5.9 2.0 75.4 69.1 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.6 7.0 2.0 73.5 67.3 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 4.9 5.1 4.3 1.8 71.9 66.7 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 6.7 7.0 7.7 2.0 72.7 66.6 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 4.4 4.7 5.4 1.8 72.9 67.2 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.0 4.1 2.0 72.8 67.3 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.9 7.9 2.0 74.0 67.5 2.6 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------