***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 5.5 5.1 6.3 1.2 63.6 61.4 2.2 3.8 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.2 5.8 1.0 62.5 60.3 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 6.8 6.5 6.3 1.2 64.5 62.1 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 1.8 1.5 3.8 1.3 65.7 62.7 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 4.5 4.2 4.2 1.3 64.6 62.1 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 3.9 3.7 2.6 1.4 66.5 63.8 0.6 2.1 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.6 4.0 5.8 0.9 60.5 59.0 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 0.0 -0.3 2.8 1.4 66.4 64.0 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.0 4.6 1.3 64.9 62.4 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 5.0 4.8 3.4 1.4 66.2 63.6 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.4 3.8 1.3 65.5 62.9 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 3.7 3.4 3.2 1.4 65.9 63.4 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 4.1 3.8 3.0 1.4 65.6 63.0 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.1 4.5 1.3 65.4 63.0 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 4.9 4.7 4.7 1.2 66.7 63.3 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.2 3.3 1.4 65.5 62.9 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.7 4.0 5.5 0.8 60.2 58.6 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 3.1 2.9 2.8 1.5 66.9 64.2 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.8 4.5 5.9 1.1 63.9 61.4 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 1.0 0.7 1.7 1.6 66.5 64.3 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 4.8 4.5 5.7 1.3 64.9 62.4 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.8 5.5 1.0 62.0 60.0 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.5 5.9 1.2 64.8 62.3 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 4.3 4.1 4.2 1.4 66.4 63.7 1.5 2.8 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 5.3 5.0 5.3 1.3 64.9 62.3 2.0 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.3 2.8 1.4 66.2 63.6 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.9 5.9 1.2 63.0 61.0 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 3.5 3.3 3.8 1.2 65.4 62.6 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.1 2.8 2.5 1.5 66.3 64.0 -0.4 1.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.7 6.0 1.1 62.7 60.7 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------