***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 6.2 7.3 9.2 2.4 88.4 82.6 4.1 4.9 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 5.8 6.8 8.6 2.2 87.0 81.3 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 8.0 9.0 9.1 2.2 88.2 82.7 6.1 6.9 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 3.2 4.3 6.4 2.2 88.7 82.9 1.1 1.9 2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 5.2 6.1 7.1 2.2 87.6 81.9 3.3 4.1 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 4.5 5.5 5.1 2.2 88.8 83.0 2.6 3.4 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 5.7 6.6 8.5 2.1 86.0 80.1 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 1.1 2.1 5.2 2.1 87.1 81.9 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 6.0 6.9 7.2 2.1 87.5 81.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 5.7 6.6 5.8 2.1 87.2 81.6 4.0 4.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 5.2 6.1 6.4 2.0 86.3 80.6 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 4.4 5.3 5.9 2.1 87.2 81.6 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 4.8 5.5 5.4 1.9 84.9 78.9 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 6.2 6.9 6.9 2.0 85.7 80.4 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 5.6 6.5 7.3 1.9 87.4 80.5 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 6.2 7.0 5.9 2.0 85.8 79.8 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 5.8 6.6 8.3 2.1 86.6 80.9 3.9 4.7 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 4.3 5.1 5.3 2.1 87.1 81.4 2.7 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.7 8.6 2.1 87.5 82.0 4.0 4.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 1.6 2.5 4.0 2.1 85.8 81.0 -0.4 0.4 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 5.7 6.6 8.3 2.1 87.5 81.6 3.8 4.6 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 5.1 5.9 8.3 2.0 86.5 81.3 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 5.7 6.5 8.5 2.1 87.5 82.3 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 5.3 6.0 6.8 2.0 87.3 81.5 3.6 4.3 4.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 6.3 7.4 8.3 2.4 89.1 83.2 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 5.2 6.1 5.4 2.1 87.7 81.7 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 6.4 7.5 8.8 2.3 87.5 81.6 4.1 5.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 4.2 5.1 6.4 2.0 87.0 81.0 2.5 3.2 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 4.1 5.0 4.7 2.0 85.3 80.2 2.0 2.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 6.2 7.1 8.8 2.2 87.3 81.5 4.1 5.0 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------