***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 20.1 22.3 22.2 5.8 91.4 90.7 15.4 17.1 18.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 19.9 21.5 21.9 5.3 89.0 88.3 15.7 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 20.4 22.0 22.3 5.5 89.0 88.3 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.5 15.4 18.4 5.4 89.5 88.7 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 20.6 22.4 20.7 5.6 89.4 88.7 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 20.2 22.3 19.7 6.0 90.1 89.5 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 19.7 21.2 21.6 5.1 88.7 88.0 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 12.0 13.7 19.7 5.8 88.3 87.9 6.8 8.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 20.8 22.6 21.6 5.6 89.5 88.8 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 20.2 22.0 20.6 6.0 89.4 88.9 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 20.7 22.4 21.3 5.5 88.1 87.5 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 20.3 22.0 20.5 5.7 88.7 88.2 15.4 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 20.9 22.5 21.2 5.5 87.6 87.1 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 20.9 22.0 21.2 5.0 86.2 85.6 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 19.0 20.5 20.6 5.1 89.1 88.4 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 21.4 23.2 20.8 5.6 88.7 88.2 16.6 18.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 19.3 20.7 21.1 4.9 87.9 87.2 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 19.5 21.2 20.3 6.1 89.2 88.7 15.1 16.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 19.8 21.3 22.1 5.2 88.3 87.6 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 17.4 19.1 18.5 5.8 87.8 87.4 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 20.4 22.2 22.1 5.5 89.1 88.5 15.9 17.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 20.0 21.2 21.1 4.7 87.0 86.2 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 20.1 21.2 21.8 4.8 86.0 85.4 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 20.8 22.4 21.7 5.6 88.4 87.8 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 19.6 21.3 20.9 5.6 90.1 89.3 15.5 17.0 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 20.4 22.2 19.9 5.6 89.1 88.6 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 20.3 22.4 21.7 5.7 91.1 90.4 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 20.0 21.7 19.5 5.3 89.1 88.4 15.5 17.2 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 16.3 18.0 19.8 5.9 88.2 87.7 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 19.8 21.4 22.1 5.4 89.4 88.7 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------