***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 18.4 19.7 18.4 3.2 83.1 77.9 13.7 15.6 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 18.2 19.3 18.3 3.1 81.6 77.0 13.9 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 18.8 19.7 18.5 2.9 79.5 75.0 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 11.9 13.0 15.2 2.8 78.9 73.8 7.5 9.5 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 18.8 19.4 16.7 2.7 77.1 72.5 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 18.0 18.7 15.5 2.7 76.9 72.0 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 18.1 19.2 18.1 3.0 81.8 77.1 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.6 15.9 2.8 76.9 72.7 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 19.2 19.9 17.6 2.8 78.0 73.4 14.6 16.5 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 18.4 19.2 16.7 3.0 78.4 73.7 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 19.0 19.5 17.2 2.7 76.1 71.7 14.5 16.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 18.4 19.2 16.6 2.7 77.0 72.7 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 19.1 19.8 16.9 2.7 76.6 72.4 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 19.0 19.6 17.6 2.7 75.8 72.1 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.0 17.9 16.8 2.8 79.6 74.5 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 19.7 20.4 16.8 2.7 77.1 72.5 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 17.6 18.6 17.8 3.0 81.6 77.1 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 17.6 18.5 16.5 3.1 78.4 74.0 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 18.3 19.4 18.4 3.0 80.2 75.8 13.8 15.7 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 15.3 16.0 14.6 2.8 77.1 73.3 11.0 12.9 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 18.8 19.4 18.0 2.7 77.8 73.3 14.4 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 18.2 19.3 17.8 2.9 80.2 76.0 14.0 15.8 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 18.5 19.1 18.4 2.7 76.9 73.0 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 19.2 20.0 17.8 3.0 78.0 73.6 14.6 16.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 17.8 18.9 16.9 3.0 81.1 76.0 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.1 15.9 2.6 77.1 73.3 14.7 16.3 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 18.6 19.9 17.9 3.2 83.2 78.0 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 17.4 18.3 16.0 2.7 78.2 73.2 13.6 15.3 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 14.5 15.3 15.8 2.9 77.1 73.2 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 18.2 19.3 18.4 3.1 81.6 77.0 13.8 15.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------