***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 17.2 18.2 16.0 2.7 78.1 71.0 13.0 14.9 16.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.4 17.1 15.8 2.5 76.8 70.1 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.5 18.5 16.3 2.6 76.4 69.8 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 11.5 12.6 13.6 2.6 77.1 69.9 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 17.4 18.2 14.6 2.6 75.2 69.1 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.2 13.4 2.4 71.5 67.0 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 16.1 16.7 15.7 2.4 76.6 69.8 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 9.3 9.9 14.0 2.8 75.0 69.7 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 17.7 18.6 15.4 2.8 76.3 69.9 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 17.4 18.3 14.8 3.0 76.4 70.3 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 17.7 18.5 14.9 2.7 75.0 69.2 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 17.5 18.1 14.6 2.6 74.5 69.3 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.2 14.0 2.5 73.1 68.6 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 18.0 18.7 15.5 2.6 74.3 68.8 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.8 16.8 14.1 2.5 77.9 70.1 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 18.4 19.0 14.5 2.7 74.3 68.9 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.9 15.4 2.3 75.4 69.0 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 16.5 17.4 14.8 3.0 76.1 70.3 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.7 17.5 16.1 2.5 76.4 69.8 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.1 12.6 2.7 74.1 69.7 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 17.3 18.2 15.7 2.6 76.1 69.6 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 16.4 17.0 15.4 2.3 75.4 69.1 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 16.8 17.4 16.3 2.5 74.9 68.7 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 17.9 18.8 15.6 2.8 76.0 69.8 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.3 17.3 14.5 2.6 77.8 70.6 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.4 13.7 2.3 72.7 68.6 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 17.2 18.1 15.5 2.7 78.4 71.2 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 16.7 17.6 13.9 2.6 76.5 69.5 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.1 14.6 14.0 2.8 74.5 69.6 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.4 17.1 15.9 2.5 77.1 70.3 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------