***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.8 18.4 17.4 3.2 91.1 87.4 13.9 15.0 16.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.4 17.5 17.2 2.9 89.2 85.2 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 17.2 18.4 17.6 3.0 88.8 85.0 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 10.4 11.8 14.4 3.0 89.5 85.3 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 17.0 18.3 15.9 3.0 88.5 84.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 16.6 17.9 14.9 3.1 88.8 84.5 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 16.1 17.4 17.0 2.9 89.2 85.0 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 8.6 9.7 15.1 3.1 88.4 84.4 6.2 7.2 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 17.4 18.7 16.7 3.0 89.0 84.9 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 16.9 18.3 15.9 3.3 89.5 85.4 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 17.3 18.6 16.3 3.0 87.8 83.8 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 17.0 18.3 15.8 3.1 88.4 84.5 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 17.4 18.7 15.9 3.0 87.9 84.0 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 17.5 18.5 16.6 2.8 86.2 82.2 14.7 15.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 15.6 16.6 15.7 2.9 89.2 84.7 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 18.0 19.3 15.9 3.1 88.5 84.5 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 15.7 16.8 16.7 2.7 88.5 84.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 16.1 17.4 15.8 3.3 89.6 85.3 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 16.6 17.8 17.4 2.9 88.3 84.4 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 13.9 15.1 13.9 3.1 88.4 84.5 11.2 12.3 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 17.1 18.4 17.1 2.9 88.6 84.7 14.4 15.5 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 16.5 17.6 16.7 2.7 87.7 83.6 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 16.7 17.7 17.4 2.7 85.9 82.0 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 17.6 18.9 16.9 3.1 88.7 84.4 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 16.2 17.5 16.0 3.1 90.1 86.3 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 17.0 18.2 15.2 3.0 88.6 85.0 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 16.9 18.4 16.9 3.2 91.3 87.4 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 16.2 17.4 15.1 2.9 88.9 84.6 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 13.1 14.4 15.1 3.2 88.5 84.3 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 16.4 17.6 17.3 3.0 89.5 85.5 13.8 14.8 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------