***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 2.1 1.7 1.4 14.6 20.1 12.3 3.4 6.1 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 1.6 2.0 2.1 24.4 27.7 16.7 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 1.4 1.3 1.8 19.1 22.8 13.4 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 1.4 0.9 1.4 11.1 17.5 11.1 2.7 6.2 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 1.5 1.0 1.3 12.3 18.1 10.5 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 1.5 1.2 1.7 14.8 19.9 11.2 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 1.5 2.0 2.0 23.5 26.8 15.5 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.4 19.3 24.0 15.7 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.3 1.2 12.0 18.1 10.8 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 2.4 2.1 2.0 16.5 21.0 13.6 4.2 8.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.8 1.6 14.5 20.0 11.1 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 1.7 1.6 1.9 17.1 22.8 13.8 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 1.8 1.4 1.8 15.7 21.2 12.3 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 3.1 3.8 2.9 24.2 27.1 17.0 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 0.9 0.6 1.3 10.3 19.0 11.4 1.8 4.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 1.8 1.5 1.5 13.6 19.4 11.3 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 1.4 1.9 2.2 25.2 28.7 17.6 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 2.1 2.1 2.2 18.1 22.4 13.9 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 2.0 2.5 2.3 25.4 28.5 17.2 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 2.0 2.5 2.9 21.8 26.7 17.3 3.4 7.4 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 1.5 0.9 1.1 10.9 16.0 10.1 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 1.9 2.6 2.7 29.5 31.9 19.9 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 2.2 2.5 2.4 25.2 27.6 17.1 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 1.9 1.8 2.2 19.3 23.2 13.4 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.8 1.1 10.7 15.8 9.7 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 2.0 2.1 2.3 21.5 26.3 16.0 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 1.6 1.1 1.2 12.7 17.7 10.8 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 1.6 1.2 1.4 11.0 18.1 10.8 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 3.3 3.5 2.6 20.2 24.7 15.7 5.3 10.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 1.9 2.3 2.1 24.0 27.1 16.0 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------