***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.2 9.1 10.3 79.5 57.4 38.2 3.2 6.9 12.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.0 9.9 85.3 60.0 44.6 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.0 10.3 10.7 81.8 57.7 40.8 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.7 11.7 82.6 58.4 41.5 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.7 11.2 84.7 59.3 42.4 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.5 12.2 96.2 63.1 45.1 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.5 9.4 81.9 58.5 43.4 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.2 12.8 12.9 90.1 61.1 46.6 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.4 11.6 88.7 60.4 44.3 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.8 13.0 92.3 61.8 46.4 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.7 11.3 84.4 58.6 42.3 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.4 11.2 87.2 60.0 44.4 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.3 12.1 94.3 62.4 44.5 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.0 16.5 13.4 84.2 58.5 43.6 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.3 11.5 80.9 59.0 41.7 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.6 11.2 87.9 60.1 42.6 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.9 9.4 84.3 60.0 43.6 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.2 14.1 95.1 62.5 48.1 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 10.8 10.2 83.7 58.9 43.3 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.4 15.6 87.1 59.1 47.1 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.4 11.3 85.8 59.3 42.1 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.5 9.9 81.4 58.4 43.3 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.4 10.7 80.7 57.5 40.5 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.7 13.9 13.2 91.0 60.9 45.3 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.3 11.6 79.4 57.1 39.3 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.9 12.3 88.8 60.5 45.0 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.6 11.2 82.4 58.2 39.5 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.1 11.2 84.8 59.8 42.3 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.1 15.5 14.7 93.4 61.6 48.5 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.8 10.0 82.3 58.6 42.9 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------