***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.4 7.8 62.4 49.6 37.1 2.2 4.5 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.1 4.6 8.0 68.0 52.1 38.6 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.3 8.1 63.9 50.2 37.7 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.1 8.8 58.1 48.8 38.2 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.4 8.8 61.8 49.8 39.1 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.3 11.7 81.3 58.9 46.7 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.8 8.3 71.7 53.7 39.2 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.9 10.7 71.3 53.8 41.9 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.3 9.1 63.1 49.9 38.4 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.0 10.3 68.1 52.0 40.4 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.6 9.0 65.3 51.4 39.9 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.7 9.5 69.4 53.3 41.0 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.7 10.8 74.6 55.5 43.3 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.6 11.1 71.4 53.9 40.6 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.3 9.3 60.0 50.2 39.3 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.8 9.8 70.9 54.0 41.8 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.2 6.0 8.8 77.3 56.1 40.3 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.6 11.3 73.6 54.2 42.4 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.3 7.8 64.8 50.8 37.8 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.8 14.8 79.6 57.1 45.1 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.0 7.9 58.7 47.6 37.0 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.6 9.3 76.5 55.8 39.9 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.5 8.3 64.5 51.0 38.1 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.4 10.2 70.0 53.0 40.6 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.7 4.5 8.1 57.7 47.4 37.5 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.8 11.3 76.7 57.2 45.1 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.7 8.1 62.8 49.8 38.0 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.7 9.5 64.7 51.7 40.2 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.5 12.2 76.0 55.3 43.6 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.5 8.1 66.9 51.8 38.2 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------