***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.6 16.3 16.0 119.2 70.3 55.8 4.9 9.0 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 16.7 15.0 118.2 69.8 53.9 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.7 16.5 16.4 124.8 71.6 55.0 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.2 18.9 17.5 117.5 69.7 53.8 3.6 8.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.4 14.4 16.3 117.0 69.3 53.3 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.9 15.0 112.9 67.9 53.0 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.2 14.4 14.4 115.3 68.9 53.4 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 25.2 17.6 118.2 69.4 54.0 5.3 11.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.9 13.2 16.9 117.5 69.3 53.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.3 14.0 17.6 116.9 69.0 53.2 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.3 15.6 115.1 68.7 52.7 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.8 15.6 16.1 121.1 70.3 53.6 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.0 16.9 16.6 122.4 70.6 54.1 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.4 19.7 19.2 122.5 70.5 52.6 6.3 10.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.2 14.9 18.5 119.5 70.7 54.8 2.7 6.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 14.8 15.6 119.3 69.8 53.0 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 16.0 14.5 115.5 69.0 52.7 3.8 8.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.9 17.9 18.4 121.5 70.1 53.5 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 15.5 15.6 121.9 70.8 54.4 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 21.1 22.1 120.7 70.1 55.4 5.4 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.6 13.9 16.1 120.4 70.4 54.0 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.0 14.6 15.0 114.4 68.6 53.5 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.0 16.1 16.5 125.3 71.6 54.1 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.0 16.2 18.1 124.9 71.2 53.6 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 15.1 16.6 113.5 68.7 54.3 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.2 15.6 17.4 125.0 71.7 55.7 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.1 16.0 114.3 69.0 54.8 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.6 16.6 118.1 70.0 53.2 2.4 5.8 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.8 26.2 18.9 121.3 70.0 54.2 7.1 13.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.0 14.5 15.7 121.2 70.7 55.1 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------